After the last conflict, Hezbollah ceased its armed activity in the border strip with Israel in compliance with the ceasefire agreement and the Lebanese government, under US pressure, tasked the Army with implementing a plan to disarm the Shiite movement across the country. The initiative advanced with difficulty, recently completing only in the southernmost region where the group voluntarily withdrew, but with particular reluctance from the Lebanese Army to disarm it by force in other regions, due to fears of an outbreak of internal violence. Last week, as a new Israeli air offensive began following its attack, the Lebanese Council of Ministers banned all its armed activities and committed to forcing its disarmament. This Monday, Lebanon marks a week under a devastating Israeli bombing campaign, the second in just 15 months, which has put the Lebanese government at odds with the Shiite group Hezbollah for launching the attack that sparked the new conflict on its own initiative. In its first seven days, the air offensive has already left more than 400 dead, 1,100 injured, half a million displaced registered with Lebanese authorities, and more destruction in a country that was still awaiting international funds to address reconstruction after the previous war. Here are some keys to understanding the new outbreak of violence and the context in which it occurs: 1. The Double Meddling. Lebanon, caught between the interests of Iran and the United States, had long feared a new offensive, aware that the slowness of disarmment was frustrating Israel and that Hezbollah was just one more piece to be moved in the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program. For the past week, the government and the presidency have maintained intense diplomatic contacts to try to stop the conflict, seeking especially the support of France and advocating for negotiations in exchange for an immediate ceasefire. 'Hezbollah is a party with representatives in Parliament, a broad popular base and control over dozens of town halls. If it were to transform completely into a political party and cease its military activities (...), we would have no problem with it,' Prime Minister Nawaf Salam let slip in an interview this Monday with the local newspaper L'Orient-Le Jour. 2. The New Conflict. As in 2024, the new Israeli bombing campaign is concentrated mainly in areas of Hezbollah's influence: the south and east of the country, and the southern suburbs of Beirut. There, Israel had continued to attack the group's alleged targets throughout the 15 months of the ceasefire, another reason cited by Hezbollah for its attack last week. In turn, the Lebanese movement had not fired a single projectile since the ceasefire and now launches some limited-range attacks daily, it is not clear if it has reoccupied the border strip from which it had withdrawn in the last year. The weapons used by the formation are mainly short-range, while they themselves reported at least one direct confrontation between the two sides in the south of the country. The response against Lebanon came almost immediately. Beyond its rivalry with Israel, the link between the Lebanese (Shiite) formation and the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas (Sunni) was also Tehran, leader of a sort of informal alliance that includes both of them, along with Iraqi militias or Yemen's Houthi rebels. 3. The Iranian Front. The 2023-2024 conflict in Lebanon began after Hezbollah launched a first symbolic attack on northern Israel in support of Gaza, the day after the start of the war in the Palestinian enclave, and took about a year to escalate from growing clashes to open war. This time, it erupted following an attack also mostly symbolic in support of its ally Tehran, two days after the start of Israel and the United States' war against Iran. The Jewish state announced that it has established itself in some Lebanese points near the dividing line, from which the Lebanese Army has in turn withdrawn.
